For the past one and half years, the world has been grappling with the greatest crisis since the Second World War. Covid-19 recorded its first cases in late December 2019 in Wuhan, China, started spreading to a number of other countries in January 2020, and by March, much of the world has faced the wrath of the virus, leading to WHO to declare it a pandemic. Conventional wisdom tells us that this zoonotic disease was somehow transmitted from animals (most likely bats, via pangolins) to humans, then morphing into human-to-human transmission. Indeed, such has been the case for many other pathogens, such as bird flu, HIV, SARS and MERS, etcetera.
There has always been this fringe theory that Covid-19 was a man-made biological weapon that came from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, held by figures including the disgraced former US President Donald Trump, but it has been rightly dismissed as a mere conspiracy theory by both the scientific community and the WHO. However, in the past few months, this theory has somehow made a comeback, and we are witnessing an international probe into the origins of the virus, led by the US government.
In this article, I will not present to you the two sides of the argument, for and against the lab leak theory (since this information can be easily found through a Google search on the internet). Rather, the aim of this article is to make a pressing case that this international probe, as noble as its intentions are portrayed prima facie, is inherently flawed from the get-go, and leads to nowhere in the context of the world in 2021, a world that is seeking to move forward and “build back better” after the pandemic. For it is a probe in pursuit of truth, but a probe shrouded in the agendas of individuals and governments, and a tool of the US government to wage another front in its animosity against China.
The Motivating Forces
It is important to realise that while Covid-19 has been with the world for over one and half years, the current probe is relatively recent. In fact, for the entirety of last year, there had been little to no calls by the scientific community or the nations of the world to investigate the origins of Covid-19. This is odd when one thinks about it, because last year, the fact that Covid-19 came out from China was much closer to everyone’s minds. While there were theories that suggested that it may have been a bioweapon engineered by the Wuhan Institute of Virology to infect the world, the sheer absurdity of such a claim and the very fact that the virus has done no good to China easily dispels it. Only fringe groups and individuals, such as Donald Trump, actively bought into this idea.
This year, now that Trump is out of office, this idea seemed to have paradoxically regained traction. While it could be possible that since Trump turned everything into a polarising conversation, the fact he is no longer in active public life makes it more permissible to discuss in the mainstream media. However, when one considers a macroscopic view of the world, it is far more pronounced what is really motivating the current probe. This year has been one of escalating and unprecedented tensions between China and the United States, under President Joe Biden. Under the Biden administration, the US government has pledged to lead not just the US, but the whole world, out of the pandemic. During the Cornwall G7 summit, Biden launched a “green belt and road” to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative. This anti-China agenda is primarily led by the United States, and as prominent European leaders such as Boris Johnson and Emmanuel Macron have made clear, they do not want to engage in a “new Cold War” with China. Thus, it is safe to say that in reigniting a dormant controversy, the Biden administration is launching a new front in its rivalry with China, where I suspect it is hoping to gain an upper hand by smearing the name of China in international media, even if no conclusions abound.
So What If A Conclusion Is Reached?
It is important to remember that in every investigation, evidence and findings are gathered in the hopes of achieving a conclusion. And in every mission, the conclusion should lead to an outcome. While the current direction of the probe is leading nowhere and risks getting protracted, I will make the case that should a conclusion be achieved for either side, the world is heading for an unpleasant outcome.
Pointing first to the far more likely outcome, that it is conclusive that the virus was not a lab leak, but rather, as we have understood for so long, it was a zoonotic disease which was transmitted from animals to humans. I say that this is the most likely outcome should the investigation continue, due to the very scant evidence for a lab leak, and genetic evidence pointing strongly towards natural origins similar to previous epidemics. This investigation that would by then already have consumed months and even years would all be dismissed as a farce, diminishing the credibility of the United States. China could then likely take credit for cooperating in the investigations (even if in truth, it had not done so in the most open and transparent of ways) only to prove American suspicions dumbfounded. More critically, the frustration felt by Washington and vindictiveness felt by Beijing will only serve to further aggravate already tense Sino-American tensions. In a post-pandemic world where we really desire to “build back better”, both the US and China will have critical roles to play, hence better relations is what the world should have a vested interest in. But it seems the US government thinks otherwise. The Biden administration has rolled back many policies of the Trump era, but when it comes to China, the stance has only grown more hawkish. It makes sense from a domestic political perspective, as anti-China rhetoric is one of the only points of agreement between Democrats and Republicans, and I am sure Biden is keen to heal the partisan divide. But has it ever been considered how dangerous it is that the hatred of a foreign country is the primary unifying force of a nation?
Despite the evidence strongly against, there are some people who still believe, religiously or not, that the virus was man-made, engineered by the Wuhan Institute of Virology, and that intentionally or not, it leaked out and infected millions of people. That such beliefs persist come to no surprise. Every time there’s a revolutionary new phenomenon or happenstance that significantly alters the course of human society, a number of ideas will arise to challenge the mainstream narrative, generally taking on the form of ungrounded conspiracy theories. These include the notions that the Apollo Moon landings were faked, that 9/11 was an inside job, or that global warming is a hoax. While they may not be convinced by scientific evidence, I need to make the case that even if this idea is proven unshakably correct, the outcome will be brutish. First and foremost, at this stage and level of enmity, the Chinese government will not accept such a conclusion and any effective measures that we would like to see, such as increased transparency of research institutes, will not be enacted. The world would be in outrage at a proven lab leak, but what are they going to do? Invade China and topple the regime? While I can expect that happening to the Turkish government had it been a lab in Istanbul rather than Wuhan, the fact that China is a nuclear-armed state and the centre of the global economy precludes punitive actions. But something would need to be done, putting the UN, WHO, US government, and world governments in a tight spot. Worse still, it might serve a symbolic victory for anti-science movements, as scientists could be “proven wrong”, as much as such a notion betrays a deficit in understanding of what science is and how anyone can be proven wrong. Regardless, it will make tackling pressing challenges like climate change much harder in the future.
The Importance of the Narrative Told
Given the current state of the probe and its surrounding investigations, with the US government persistently pushing for Chinese culpability and assured denying and lack of cooperation from their Chinese counterparts, it is unlikely that any solid conclusion will be achieved. Even when truth is out of reach, the narrative still matters.
I can see why some people would like to believe in this lab leak theory, for perfectly understandable psychological reasons. A big part of the appeal of the theory right now — beyond the chance to apply egg to the face of the popular boogeyman (particularly on the right) that is the media — lies in how intriguing it is. A deadly worldwide pandemic originating from a lab accident — or worse — is basically a Hollywood script. That it would involve a nefarious and powerful foreign government that also happens to be “communist” is almost a bit too over the top. While it makes for a good movie series, such a narrative does nothing to assist the world in solving on-the-ground issues and actually “build back better”.
Juxtapose this against the narrative that the natural origins of the virus would offer to the world. The fact that Covid-19 is zoonotic is important here, meaning that it was transmitted from animals to humans. And so is the statistic that the prevalence and frequency of zoonotic outbreaks has only increased over the years. These years are the years that correlate with unprecedented levels of anthropogenic climate change and ecological destruction. Where’s the link? Well, humans are a cause a Covid-19, but not in the man-made sense that the lab leak theory proposes. Rather, it is due to our excessive urbanisation and the clearing of what should be the realm of Mother Nature that puts humans in unnecessary and risky contact with wild animals (which is where the bats and pangolins come in), hence zoonotic diseases like this one. Covid-19 just happens to be highly transmissible, but we are fortunate it is not as fatal (Variants may be). So what is the step forward? To prevent future outbreaks, taking good care of the environment is imperative, a goal that aligns with “building back better”.
Conclusion
My main objective in this article was not to lay out the evidence for and against the lab leak theory, but rather to explain why the current probe against China is going in absolutely the wrong direction. I must make clear that I am not opposed to the pursuit of truth. As a firm supporter of science and Enlightenment values, the pursuit of truth should be a cardinal aim. But what I see now is a vain pursuit of truth. The most frustrating aspect of all this is that the increasing focus on this theory doesn’t necessarily increase the likelihood that we will ever know the truth. At best, it’s creating pressure to get to the truth and to create much-needed accountability for plenty of those involved (including those currently covering this story). At worst, it’s fueling still-unproven theories that might well be false but won’t ever be disproven — and thus will live on as a political football for years to come.
Since this article is highly critical of the US government, some readers may be mistaken to believe that I am “pro-China” and a “sympathiser” of the Chinese Communist Party. It too has to be noted that China has also indulged in ridiculous claims such as suggesting that Covid-19 originated in Italy or came from US soldiers. But they have not pressed these claims seriously. Additionally, while I referenced Donald Trump in the introduction, this is not to use his disrepute to discredit the theory. Rather, it was just because he was the most prominent individual to have subscribed to it last year. Additionally, just because Trump says something does not make it automatically wrong. Indeed, he might very well have been right on China, by giving the world a wakeup call to diversify supply chains far too reliant on China. He is not right though, when spewing lies and conspiracy theories.
Eventually, we should get to the bottom of the origins of Covid-19. But not now. It is not the time and will only serve to consume resources and energy better placed towards recovery from Covid-19. When will be a better time, one may ask? In my opinion, when relations between the US and China improve (and the international geopolitical environment as well). Why? Because the current probe seems less in pursuit of truth, than in pursuit of Chinese culpability. When China feels threatened by the relentless smearing of its image, there will not be any reason to cooperate with the US and WHO comprehensively, leading to protracted inconclusive investigations, which we are seeing now.
Most importantly of all, this must not be happening in the context of a new Cold War with China, which will be disastrous for the world. The two most powerful countries in the world are, transparently, rivals, and yet they are also, in almost inextricable ways, partners. They are not — as the Cold War analogy suggests — competitive, self-contained empires operating from incompatible ideologies and separated by an Iron Curtain; they are something much more complicated and intertwined, if not quite one economy ruled by two governments. Hence, mutual trust and cooperation must be restored, only then can the world truly “build back better”.
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